Emley vs Curzon Ashton Prediction & Preview
Non League Premier (England) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NON LEAGUE PREMIER (ENGLAND)
Emley vs Curzon Ashton
Model pick: Curzon Ashton (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.28 – 0.95
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 26%
Both teams score: 32%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Emley | Curzon Ashton |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.5 / 1.0 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
*Emley shown at home, Curzon Ashton shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Emley — last 5
DLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Curzon Ashton — last 5
DDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Emley (home) | Curzon Ashton (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% |
Non League Premier (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.73
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Non League Premier (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.28 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (29%) |
| Double chance — Emley or draw (1X) | 48% |
| Double chance — Curzon Ashton or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 62% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 35% / 65% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Emley clean sheet | 39% |
| Curzon Ashton clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Curzon Ashton is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Curzon Ashton edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (74% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Emley vs Curzon Ashton — FAQ
Who will win Emley vs Curzon Ashton?
Our statistical model makes Curzon Ashton the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Emley 13%, draw 38%, Curzon Ashton 50%.
Will both teams score in Emley vs Curzon Ashton?
The model gives a 32% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Emley vs Curzon Ashton?
Expected goals are 0.28 for Emley and 0.95 for Curzon Ashton — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Emley vs Curzon Ashton?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (29%). Double chance for Emley or draw is 48%.