Emmen vs Volendam Prediction & Preview
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
EERSTE DIVISIE (NETHERLANDS)
Emmen vs Volendam
Model pick: Volendam (47%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.47 – 1.96
Total goals: 3.4
Over 2.5: 60%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Emmen | Volendam |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #16 (32 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.6 | 2.4 / 1.6 |
*Emmen shown at home, Volendam shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Emmen — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Volendam — last 5
LLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 13% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Emmen (home) | Volendam (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 13% |
| Both teams scored | 52% | 64% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 62% |
Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.15
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.47 vs 1.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — Emmen or draw (1X) | 51% |
| Double chance — Volendam or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 86% / 14% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 45% / 55% |
| Emmen clean sheet | 14% |
| Volendam clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Volendam is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Volendam edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.4, this shapes as an open game (60% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Emmen vs Volendam — FAQ
Who will win Emmen vs Volendam?
Our statistical model makes Volendam the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Emmen 30%, draw 24%, Volendam 47%.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Volendam?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Emmen vs Volendam?
Expected goals are 1.47 for Emmen and 1.96 for Volendam — about 3.4 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Emmen vs Volendam?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for Emmen or draw is 51%.