Empoli vs Cremonese Prediction & Preview
Serie B (Italy) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SERIE B (ITALY)
Empoli vs Cremonese
Model pick: Cremonese (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 1.39
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 50%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Empoli | Cremonese |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #18 (34 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
*Empoli shown at home, Cremonese shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Empoli — last 5
WDWDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 49% of home games go over 2.5.
Cremonese — last 5
LWDDW
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Empoli (home) | Cremonese (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 45% |
Serie B (Italy) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.45
Home wins: 42%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 53%
Use these Serie B (Italy) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 1.39):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Empoli or draw (1X) | 59% |
| Double chance — Cremonese or draw (X2) | 68% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Empoli clean sheet | 25% |
| Cremonese clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Cremonese is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Cremonese edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (50% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Empoli vs Cremonese — FAQ
Who will win Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model makes Cremonese the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Empoli 33%, draw 29%, Cremonese 38%.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cremonese?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Empoli vs Cremonese?
Expected goals are 1.2 for Empoli and 1.39 for Cremonese — about 2.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Empoli vs Cremonese?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Empoli or draw is 59%.