Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary Prediction & Preview
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION INTERMEDIA (PARAGUAY)
Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary
Model pick: Encarnacion FC (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.97 – 0.8
Total goals: 1.8
Over 2.5: 36%
Both teams score: 45%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Encarnacion FC | Tacuary |
|---|
| League position | #16 (15 pts) | #14 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 2.0 | 1.2 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 9% | 9% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.6 | 0.6 / 1.4 |
*Encarnacion FC shown at home, Tacuary shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Encarnacion FC — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 17% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Tacuary — last 5
WLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Encarnacion FC (home) | Tacuary (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-2-8 in 11 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 1-6-4 in 11 (1.2 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 17% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 44% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 44% |
Division Intermedia (Paraguay) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 32%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 44%
BTTS: 60%
Use these Division Intermedia (Paraguay) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.97 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Encarnacion FC or draw (1X) | 71% |
| Double chance — Tacuary or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 53% / 47% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 10% / 90% |
| Encarnacion FC clean sheet | 45% |
| Tacuary clean sheet | 38% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Encarnacion FC is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Encarnacion FC are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (64% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary — FAQ
Who will win Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary?
Our statistical model makes Encarnacion FC the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Encarnacion FC 37%, draw 33%, Tacuary 30%.
Will both teams score in Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary?
The model gives a 45% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary?
Expected goals are 0.97 for Encarnacion FC and 0.8 for Tacuary — about 1.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Encarnacion FC vs Tacuary?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (17%). Double chance for Encarnacion FC or draw is 71%.