Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth Prediction & Preview
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 11:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
BUNDESLIGA 2 (GERMANY)
Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth
Model pick: Greuther Fürth (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.59 – 2.32
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Energie Cottbus | Greuther Fürth |
|---|
| League position | #8 (3 pts) | #16 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 2.2 | 2.0 / 1.8 |
*Energie Cottbus shown at home, Greuther Fürth shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Energie Cottbus — last 5
WLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 20% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Greuther Fürth — last 5
WWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 54% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Energie Cottbus (home) | Greuther Fürth (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 20% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 54% |
| Top scorer | – | Felix Klaus (8) |
Bundesliga 2 (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.89
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Bundesliga 2 (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.59 vs 2.32):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Energie Cottbus or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Greuther Fürth or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 80% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Energie Cottbus clean sheet | 10% |
| Greuther Fürth clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Greuther Fürth is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Despite playing away, Greuther Fürth edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth — FAQ
Who will win Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model makes Greuther Fürth the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Energie Cottbus 34%, draw 24%, Greuther Fürth 42%.
Will both teams score in Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth?
Expected goals are 1.59 for Energie Cottbus and 2.32 for Greuther Fürth — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Energie Cottbus vs Greuther Fürth?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Energie Cottbus or draw is 46%.