Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Ukraine) · Aug 02, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (UKRAINE)
Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv
Model pick: Epitsentr (44%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.51 – 0.94
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Epitsentr | Obolon Kyiv |
|---|
| League position | #13 (0 pts) | #5 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.2 |
*Epitsentr shown at home, Obolon Kyiv shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Epitsentr — last 5
LLLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Obolon Kyiv — last 5
DWWDL
On the road: clean sheet 23% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Epitsentr (home) | Obolon Kyiv (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 23% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 36% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 49% |
| Top scorer | Joaquinete (3) | Denys Ustymenko (4) |
Premier League (Ukraine) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 45%
Use these Premier League (Ukraine) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.51 vs 0.94):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Epitsentr or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Obolon Kyiv or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Epitsentr clean sheet | 39% |
| Obolon Kyiv clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Epitsentr is the model's most likely outcome at
44%. Epitsentr are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv — FAQ
Who will win Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv?
Our statistical model makes Epitsentr the most likely result at 44%. Full probabilities: Epitsentr 44%, draw 28%, Obolon Kyiv 27%.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv?
Expected goals are 1.51 for Epitsentr and 0.94 for Obolon Kyiv — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Epitsentr vs Obolon Kyiv?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Epitsentr or draw is 76%.