Erfurt vs BFC Preussen Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Erfurt vs BFC Preussen
Model pick: Erfurt (82%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.76 – 0.36
Total goals: 3.1
Over 2.5: 56%
Both teams score: 41%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Erfurt | BFC Preussen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.4 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.8 |
*Erfurt shown at home, BFC Preussen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Erfurt — last 5
WDWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 43% of the time; 71% of home games go over 2.5.
BFC Preussen — last 5
DLLLD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Erfurt (home) | BFC Preussen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 43% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 75% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.24
Home wins: 36%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 64%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.76 vs 0.36):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — Erfurt or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — BFC Preussen or draw (X2) | 13% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 90% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 82% / 18% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Erfurt clean sheet | 70% |
| BFC Preussen clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Erfurt is the model's most likely outcome at
82%. Erfurt are backed at home, where they average 2.9 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.1, this shapes as an open game (56% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Erfurt vs BFC Preussen — FAQ
Who will win Erfurt vs BFC Preussen?
Our statistical model makes Erfurt the most likely result at 82%. Full probabilities: Erfurt 82%, draw 13%, BFC Preussen 5%.
Will both teams score in Erfurt vs BFC Preussen?
The model gives a 41% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Erfurt vs BFC Preussen?
Expected goals are 2.76 for Erfurt and 0.36 for BFC Preussen — about 3.1 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Erfurt vs BFC Preussen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (17%). Double chance for Erfurt or draw is 97%.