Erfurt vs Magdeburg II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Erfurt vs Magdeburg II
Model pick: Erfurt (97%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 6.84 – 0.77
Total goals: 7.6
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Erfurt | Magdeburg II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 0.6 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Erfurt shown at home, Magdeburg II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Erfurt — last 5
WWDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 50% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Magdeburg II — last 5
WDWDL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Erfurt (home) | Magdeburg II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 50% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 100% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.23
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 34%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (6.84 vs 0.77):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 6-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Erfurt or draw (1X) | 100% |
| Double chance — Magdeburg II or draw (X2) | 2% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 99% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 99% / 1% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 93% / 7% |
| Erfurt clean sheet | 46% |
| Magdeburg II clean sheet | 0% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Erfurt is the model's most likely outcome at
97%. Erfurt are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 7.6, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Erfurt vs Magdeburg II — FAQ
Who will win Erfurt vs Magdeburg II?
Our statistical model makes Erfurt the most likely result at 97%. Full probabilities: Erfurt 97%, draw 2%, Magdeburg II 1%.
Will both teams score in Erfurt vs Magdeburg II?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Erfurt vs Magdeburg II?
Expected goals are 6.84 for Erfurt and 0.77 for Magdeburg II — about 7.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Erfurt vs Magdeburg II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 6-0 (9%). Double chance for Erfurt or draw is 100%.