Erlbach vs Gundelfingen Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Erlbach vs Gundelfingen
Model pick: Erlbach (61%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.12 – 0.1
Total goals: 1.2
Over 2.5: 26%
Both teams score: 24%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Erlbach | Gundelfingen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.33 / 0.33 | 1.25 / 1.25 |
*Erlbach shown at home, Gundelfingen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Erlbach — last 5
WLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 100% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Gundelfingen — last 5
DLWD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Erlbach (home) | Gundelfingen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 100% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 0% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.05
Home wins: 35%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 36%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.12 vs 0.1):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (33%) |
| Double chance — Erlbach or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Gundelfingen or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 4% / 96% |
| Erlbach clean sheet | 90% |
| Gundelfingen clean sheet | 33% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Erlbach is the model's most likely outcome at
61%. Erlbach are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (74% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Erlbach vs Gundelfingen — FAQ
Who will win Erlbach vs Gundelfingen?
Our statistical model makes Erlbach the most likely result at 61%. Full probabilities: Erlbach 61%, draw 34%, Gundelfingen 5%.
Will both teams score in Erlbach vs Gundelfingen?
The model gives a 24% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Erlbach vs Gundelfingen?
Expected goals are 1.12 for Erlbach and 0.1 for Gundelfingen — about 1.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Erlbach vs Gundelfingen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (33%). Double chance for Erlbach or draw is 97%.