Erlbach vs Ismaning Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Erlbach vs Ismaning
Model pick: Erlbach (43%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.04 – 0.61
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Erlbach | Ismaning |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 2.0 / 1.2 |
*Erlbach shown at home, Ismaning shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Erlbach — last 5
LWDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 67% of the time; 33% of home games go over 2.5.
Ismaning — last 5
WLLWD
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Erlbach (home) | Ismaning (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.34
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 62%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.04 vs 0.61):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (20%) |
| Double chance — Erlbach or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Ismaning or draw (X2) | 55% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 67% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Erlbach clean sheet | 54% |
| Ismaning clean sheet | 35% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Erlbach is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Erlbach are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Erlbach vs Ismaning — FAQ
Who will win Erlbach vs Ismaning?
Our statistical model makes Erlbach the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Erlbach 43%, draw 34%, Ismaning 23%.
Will both teams score in Erlbach vs Ismaning?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Erlbach vs Ismaning?
Expected goals are 1.04 for Erlbach and 0.61 for Ismaning — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Erlbach vs Ismaning?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (20%). Double chance for Erlbach or draw is 79%.