Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 12:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen
Model pick: Draw (50%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.53 – 0.24
Total goals: 0.8
Over 2.5: 15%
Both teams score: 27%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Erzgebirge Aue | BFC Preussen |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.0 / 1.4 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
*Erzgebirge Aue shown at home, BFC Preussen shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Erzgebirge Aue — last 5
WWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
BFC Preussen — last 5
LWDLL
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Erzgebirge Aue (home) | BFC Preussen (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 58% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 67% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.35
Home wins: 37%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 55%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.53 vs 0.24):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (46%) |
| Double chance — Erzgebirge Aue or draw (1X) | 87% |
| Double chance — BFC Preussen or draw (X2) | 66% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 48% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 1% / 99% |
| Erzgebirge Aue clean sheet | 79% |
| BFC Preussen clean sheet | 59% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (85% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen — FAQ
Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Erzgebirge Aue 35%, draw 50%, BFC Preussen 16%.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen?
The model gives a 27% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen?
Expected goals are 0.53 for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.24 for BFC Preussen — about 0.8 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Erzgebirge Aue vs BFC Preussen?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (46%). Double chance for Erzgebirge Aue or draw is 87%.