Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II Prediction & Preview
Regionalliga (Germany) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
REGIONALLIGA (GERMANY)
Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II
Model pick: Erzgebirge Aue (68%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.68 – 0.99
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Erzgebirge Aue | Hertha Berlin II |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.8 | 1.0 / 2.6 |
*Erzgebirge Aue shown at home, Hertha Berlin II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Erzgebirge Aue — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 28% of the time; 58% of home games go over 2.5.
Hertha Berlin II — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Erzgebirge Aue (home) | Hertha Berlin II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 28% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 100% |
Regionalliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.31
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 28%
Away wins: 35%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 65%
Use these Regionalliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.68 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (9%) |
| Double chance — Erzgebirge Aue or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Hertha Berlin II or draw (X2) | 27% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Erzgebirge Aue clean sheet | 37% |
| Hertha Berlin II clean sheet | 7% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Erzgebirge Aue is the model's most likely outcome at
68%. Erzgebirge Aue are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II — FAQ
Who will win Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II?
Our statistical model makes Erzgebirge Aue the most likely result at 68%. Full probabilities: Erzgebirge Aue 68%, draw 18%, Hertha Berlin II 14%.
Will both teams score in Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II?
Expected goals are 2.68 for Erzgebirge Aue and 0.99 for Hertha Berlin II — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Erzgebirge Aue vs Hertha Berlin II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (9%). Double chance for Erzgebirge Aue or draw is 88%.