ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel
Model pick: ES Tunis (60%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.7 – 0.59
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ES Tunis | Etoile du Sahel |
|---|
| League position | #8 (0 pts) | #1 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.8 / 1.6 |
*ES Tunis shown at home, Etoile du Sahel shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ES Tunis — last 5
LWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 62% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Etoile du Sahel — last 5
WLLWL
On the road: clean sheet 40% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ES Tunis (home) | Etoile du Sahel (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 62% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 37% | 40% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 36% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 46%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.7 vs 0.59):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — ES Tunis or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Etoile du Sahel or draw (X2) | 36% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| ES Tunis clean sheet | 55% |
| Etoile du Sahel clean sheet | 18% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ES Tunis is the model's most likely outcome at
60%. ES Tunis are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel — FAQ
Who will win ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel?
Our statistical model makes ES Tunis the most likely result at 60%. Full probabilities: ES Tunis 60%, draw 25%, Etoile du Sahel 15%.
Will both teams score in ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel?
Expected goals are 1.7 for ES Tunis and 0.59 for Etoile du Sahel — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ES Tunis vs Etoile du Sahel?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (17%). Double chance for ES Tunis or draw is 88%.