ES Tunis vs Marsa Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
ES Tunis vs Marsa
Model pick: ES Tunis (78%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.5 – 0.4
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 42%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| ES Tunis | Marsa |
|---|
| League position | #10 (3 pts) | #11 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
*ES Tunis shown at home, Marsa shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
ES Tunis — last 5
WDWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 61% of the time; 41% of home games go over 2.5.
Marsa — last 5
LDWLD
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 36% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | ES Tunis (home) | Marsa (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (3.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 61% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 36% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 37%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.5 vs 0.4):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (17%) |
| Double chance — ES Tunis or draw (1X) | 96% |
| Double chance — Marsa or draw (X2) | 17% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| ES Tunis clean sheet | 67% |
| Marsa clean sheet | 8% |
🎯 Our Verdict
ES Tunis is the model's most likely outcome at
78%. ES Tunis are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ ES Tunis vs Marsa — FAQ
Who will win ES Tunis vs Marsa?
Our statistical model makes ES Tunis the most likely result at 78%. Full probabilities: ES Tunis 78%, draw 16%, Marsa 6%.
Will both teams score in ES Tunis vs Marsa?
The model gives a 42% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in ES Tunis vs Marsa?
Expected goals are 2.5 for ES Tunis and 0.4 for Marsa — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in ES Tunis vs Marsa?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (17%). Double chance for ES Tunis or draw is 96%.