Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 18:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer
Model pick: Esenler Erokspor (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.6 – 0.8
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 49%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Esenler Erokspor | Sariyer |
|---|
| League position | #6 (1 pts) | #11 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
*Esenler Erokspor shown at home, Sariyer shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Esenler Erokspor — last 5
WLDLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 21% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Sariyer — last 5
DWLWW
On the road: clean sheet 32% of the time; 58% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Esenler Erokspor (home) | Sariyer (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 21% | 32% |
| Both teams scored | 69% | 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 58% |
| Top scorer | Hamza Catakovic (11) | Marcos Silva (3) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.6 vs 0.8):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Esenler Erokspor or draw (1X) | 81% |
| Double chance — Sariyer or draw (X2) | 44% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 69% / 31% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 22% / 78% |
| Esenler Erokspor clean sheet | 45% |
| Sariyer clean sheet | 20% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Esenler Erokspor is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Esenler Erokspor are backed at home, where they average 1.8 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer — FAQ
Who will win Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer?
Our statistical model makes Esenler Erokspor the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Esenler Erokspor 53%, draw 26%, Sariyer 21%.
Will both teams score in Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer?
The model gives a 49% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer?
Expected goals are 1.6 for Esenler Erokspor and 0.8 for Sariyer — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Esenler Erokspor vs Sariyer?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Esenler Erokspor or draw is 81%.