Essingen vs Pforzheim Prediction & Preview
Oberliga (Germany) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
OBERLIGA (GERMANY)
Essingen vs Pforzheim
Model pick: Pforzheim (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.41 – 2.11
Total goals: 3.5
Over 2.5: 61%
Both teams score: 60%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Essingen | Pforzheim |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1.0 / 1.25 |
*Essingen shown at home, Pforzheim shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Essingen — last 5
WDWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Pforzheim — last 5
LDDW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 0% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Essingen (home) | Pforzheim (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 33% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 0% |
Oberliga (Germany) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.61
Home wins: 40%
Draws: 22%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 63%
Use these Oberliga (Germany) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.41 vs 2.11):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — Essingen or draw (1X) | 46% |
| Double chance — Pforzheim or draw (X2) | 75% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 47% / 53% |
| Essingen clean sheet | 12% |
| Pforzheim clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Pforzheim is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Pforzheim edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.5, this shapes as an open game (61% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Essingen vs Pforzheim — FAQ
Who will win Essingen vs Pforzheim?
Our statistical model makes Pforzheim the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: Essingen 27%, draw 23%, Pforzheim 50%.
Will both teams score in Essingen vs Pforzheim?
The model gives a 60% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Essingen vs Pforzheim?
Expected goals are 1.41 for Essingen and 2.11 for Pforzheim — about 3.5 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Essingen vs Pforzheim?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for Essingen or draw is 46%.