Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 14, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak
Model pick: Draw (34%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.83 – 0.82
Total goals: 1.6
Over 2.5: 34%
Both teams score: 43%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Esteghlal Khuzestan | Aluminium Arak |
|---|
| League position | #14 (0 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.0 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
*Esteghlal Khuzestan shown at home, Aluminium Arak shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Esteghlal Khuzestan — last 5
LDWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Aluminium Arak — last 5
LDWDD
On the road: clean sheet 37% of the time; 23% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Esteghlal Khuzestan (home) | Aluminium Arak (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 37% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 37% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 23% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.83 vs 0.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (19%) |
| Double chance — Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Aluminium Arak or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 65% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 49% / 51% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Esteghlal Khuzestan clean sheet | 44% |
| Aluminium Arak clean sheet | 44% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Draw is the model's most likely outcome at
34%. The model sees no clear favourite — a draw is live. Goals may be harder to come by (66% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak — FAQ
Who will win Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak?
Our statistical model makes Draw the most likely result at 34%. Full probabilities: Esteghlal Khuzestan 33%, draw 34%, Aluminium Arak 32%.
Will both teams score in Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak?
The model gives a 43% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak?
Expected goals are 0.83 for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.82 for Aluminium Arak — about 1.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Aluminium Arak?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (19%). Double chance for Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw is 68%.