Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 17:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran
Model pick: Esteghlal Khuzestan (38%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.94 – 0.75
Total goals: 1.7
Over 2.5: 35%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Esteghlal Khuzestan | Nassaji Mazandaran |
|---|
| League position | #15 (0 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 1.2 | 0.4 / 1.6 |
*Esteghlal Khuzestan shown at home, Nassaji Mazandaran shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Esteghlal Khuzestan — last 5
DWWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 30% of home games go over 2.5.
Nassaji Mazandaran — last 5
LLWLL
On the road: clean sheet 28% of the time; 32% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Esteghlal Khuzestan (home) | Nassaji Mazandaran (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 28% |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 32% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.94 vs 0.75):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Nassaji Mazandaran or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 66% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 9% / 91% |
| Esteghlal Khuzestan clean sheet | 47% |
| Nassaji Mazandaran clean sheet | 39% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Esteghlal Khuzestan is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Esteghlal Khuzestan are backed at home, where they average 0.9 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (65% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran — FAQ
Who will win Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran?
Our statistical model makes Esteghlal Khuzestan the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: Esteghlal Khuzestan 38%, draw 34%, Nassaji Mazandaran 29%.
Will both teams score in Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran?
Expected goals are 0.94 for Esteghlal Khuzestan and 0.75 for Nassaji Mazandaran — about 1.7 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Esteghlal Khuzestan vs Nassaji Mazandaran?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (18%). Double chance for Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw is 72%.