Esteghlal vs Persepolis Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Esteghlal vs Persepolis
Model pick: Esteghlal (35%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 0.95
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 40%
Both teams score: 47%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Esteghlal | Persepolis |
|---|
| League position | #1 (9 pts) | #5 (6 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 3.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.2 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
*Esteghlal shown at home, Persepolis shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Esteghlal — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Persepolis — last 5
LLWWL
On the road: clean sheet 52% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Esteghlal (home) | Persepolis (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-0 in 2 (3.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 52% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 35% |
| Top scorer | Jasir Asani (2) | – |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 0.95):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Esteghlal or draw (1X) | 67% |
| Double chance — Persepolis or draw (X2) | 64% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 58% / 42% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 13% / 87% |
| Esteghlal clean sheet | 39% |
| Persepolis clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Esteghlal is the model's most likely outcome at
35%. Esteghlal are backed at home, where they average 1.5 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (60% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Esteghlal vs Persepolis — FAQ
Who will win Esteghlal vs Persepolis?
Our statistical model makes Esteghlal the most likely result at 35%. Full probabilities: Esteghlal 35%, draw 32%, Persepolis 33%.
Will both teams score in Esteghlal vs Persepolis?
The model gives a 47% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Esteghlal vs Persepolis?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Esteghlal and 0.95 for Persepolis — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Esteghlal vs Persepolis?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (14%). Double chance for Esteghlal or draw is 67%.