Esteghlal vs Sepahan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 23, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Esteghlal vs Sepahan
Model pick: Sepahan (36%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.99 – 1.06
Total goals: 2.0
Over 2.5: 41%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Esteghlal | Sepahan |
|---|
| League position | #1 (3 pts) | #2 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 4.0 / 0.0 | 2.0 / 0.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 100% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.4 |
*Esteghlal shown at home, Sepahan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Esteghlal — last 5
LWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 53% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Sepahan — last 5
LWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 35% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Esteghlal (home) | Sepahan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-0 in 1 (4.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 1-0-0 in 1 (2.0 / 0.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 53% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 39% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 35% |
| Top scorer | Jasir Asani (2) | Milad Zakipour (1) |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.99 vs 1.06):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (14%) |
| Double chance — Esteghlal or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Sepahan or draw (X2) | 67% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 61% / 39% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 15% / 85% |
| Esteghlal clean sheet | 35% |
| Sepahan clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sepahan is the model's most likely outcome at
36%. Despite playing away, Sepahan edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (59% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Esteghlal vs Sepahan — FAQ
Who will win Esteghlal vs Sepahan?
Our statistical model makes Sepahan the most likely result at 36%. Full probabilities: Esteghlal 33%, draw 31%, Sepahan 36%.
Will both teams score in Esteghlal vs Sepahan?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Esteghlal vs Sepahan?
Expected goals are 0.99 for Esteghlal and 1.06 for Sepahan — about 2.0 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Esteghlal vs Sepahan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (14%). Double chance for Esteghlal or draw is 63%.