Estoril vs Famalicão Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Aug 07, 2026 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Estoril vs Famalicão
Model pick: Famalicão (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.34
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Estoril | Famalicão |
|---|
| League position | #3 (0 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*Estoril shown at home, Famalicão shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Estoril — last 5
DWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Famalicão — last 5
DWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 49% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Estoril (home) | Famalicão (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 49% |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.34 vs 1.34):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Estoril or draw (1X) | 63% |
| Double chance — Famalicão or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Estoril clean sheet | 26% |
| Famalicão clean sheet | 26% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Famalicão is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Despite playing away, Famalicão edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Estoril vs Famalicão — FAQ
Who will win Estoril vs Famalicão?
Our statistical model makes Famalicão the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Estoril 32%, draw 28%, Famalicão 40%.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Famalicão?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Estoril vs Famalicão?
Expected goals are 1.34 for Estoril and 1.34 for Famalicão — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Estoril vs Famalicão?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Estoril or draw is 63%.