Estoril vs Rio Ave Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Estoril vs Rio Ave
Model pick: Estoril (48%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.76 – 1.15
Total goals: 2.9
Over 2.5: 54%
Both teams score: 56%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Estoril | Rio Ave |
|---|
| League position | #13 (1 pts) | #18 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.0 / 1.0 | 0.0 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.4 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 1.6 |
*Estoril shown at home, Rio Ave shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Estoril — last 5
LDDDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Rio Ave — last 5
DWWLL
On the road: clean sheet 24% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Estoril (home) | Rio Ave (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (1.0 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 24% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 42% |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.76 vs 1.15):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Estoril or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Rio Ave or draw (X2) | 48% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 33% / 67% |
| Estoril clean sheet | 32% |
| Rio Ave clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Estoril is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Estoril are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (46% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Estoril vs Rio Ave — FAQ
Who will win Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Our statistical model makes Estoril the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Estoril 48%, draw 26%, Rio Ave 26%.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Rio Ave?
The model gives a 56% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Estoril vs Rio Ave?
Expected goals are 1.76 for Estoril and 1.15 for Rio Ave — about 2.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Estoril vs Rio Ave?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Estoril or draw is 75%.