Estradense vs Sarriana Prediction & Preview
Tercera (Spain) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
TERCERA (SPAIN)
Estradense vs Sarriana
Model pick: Estradense (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.0
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 52%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Estradense | Sarriana |
|---|
| League position | #4 (53 pts) | #16 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 0.8 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 53% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Estradense shown at home, Sarriana shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Estradense — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 38% of home games go over 2.5.
Sarriana — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 39% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Estradense (home) | Sarriana (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 9-6-2 in 17 (1.4 / 0.8 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 39% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 56% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 50% |
Tercera (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.49
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 45%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Tercera (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.53 vs 1.0):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (12%) |
| Double chance — Estradense or draw (1X) | 75% |
| Double chance — Sarriana or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 72% / 28% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 25% / 75% |
| Estradense clean sheet | 37% |
| Sarriana clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Estradense is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Estradense are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Estradense vs Sarriana — FAQ
Who will win Estradense vs Sarriana?
Our statistical model makes Estradense the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Estradense 47%, draw 27%, Sarriana 26%.
Will both teams score in Estradense vs Sarriana?
The model gives a 52% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Estradense vs Sarriana?
Expected goals are 1.53 for Estradense and 1.0 for Sarriana — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Estradense vs Sarriana?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (12%). Double chance for Estradense or draw is 75%.