Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Venezuela) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 20:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (VENEZUELA)
Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC
Model pick: Estudiantes de Mérida (43%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.64 – 1.18
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 53%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Estudiantes de Mérida | Anzoategui FC |
|---|
| League position | #6 (20 pts) | #13 (9 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.8 / 1.7 | 1.6 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 29% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.6 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
*Estudiantes de Mérida shown at home, Anzoategui FC shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Estudiantes de Mérida — last 5
WLDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 34% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Anzoategui FC — last 5
LDLWL
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 53% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Estudiantes de Mérida (home) | Anzoategui FC (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-1-2 in 6 (1.8 / 1.7 goals per game) | 2-1-4 in 7 (1.6 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 34% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 59% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 53% |
Primera Division (Venezuela) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 46%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Primera Division (Venezuela) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.64 vs 1.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Estudiantes de Mérida or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Anzoategui FC or draw (X2) | 52% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 31% / 69% |
| Estudiantes de Mérida clean sheet | 31% |
| Anzoategui FC clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Estudiantes de Mérida is the model's most likely outcome at
43%. Estudiantes de Mérida are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (47% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC — FAQ
Who will win Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC?
Our statistical model makes Estudiantes de Mérida the most likely result at 43%. Full probabilities: Estudiantes de Mérida 43%, draw 28%, Anzoategui FC 29%.
Will both teams score in Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC?
Expected goals are 1.64 for Estudiantes de Mérida and 1.18 for Anzoategui FC — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Estudiantes de Mérida vs Anzoategui FC?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Estudiantes de Mérida or draw is 73%.