Etar vs CSKA Sofia II Prediction & Preview
B PFG (Bulgaria) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 15:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
B PFG (BULGARIA)
Etar vs CSKA Sofia II
Model pick: Etar (42%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.06 – 1.88
Total goals: 3.9
Over 2.5: 66%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Etar | CSKA Sofia II |
|---|
| League position | #8 (11 pts) | #3 (14 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 1.8 | 2.2 / 1.2 |
*Etar shown at home, CSKA Sofia II shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Etar — last 5
WDLDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 29% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
CSKA Sofia II — last 5
WWDLW
On the road: clean sheet 60% of the time; 20% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Etar (home) | CSKA Sofia II (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-2-0 in 4 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 2-1-1 in 4 (1.2 / 0.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 29% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 20% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
B PFG (Bulgaria) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.56
Home wins: 51%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 41%
BTTS: 46%
Use these B PFG (Bulgaria) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.06 vs 1.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-1 (8%) |
| Double chance — Etar or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — CSKA Sofia II or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 90% / 10% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Etar clean sheet | 15% |
| CSKA Sofia II clean sheet | 13% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Etar is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Etar are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.9, this shapes as an open game (66% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Etar vs CSKA Sofia II — FAQ
Who will win Etar vs CSKA Sofia II?
Our statistical model makes Etar the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Etar 42%, draw 22%, CSKA Sofia II 36%.
Will both teams score in Etar vs CSKA Sofia II?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Etar vs CSKA Sofia II?
Expected goals are 2.06 for Etar and 1.88 for CSKA Sofia II — about 3.9 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Etar vs CSKA Sofia II?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-1 (8%). Double chance for Etar or draw is 64%.