Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Aug 28, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona
Model pick: Etoile Carouge (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.21
Total goals: 3.0
Over 2.5: 55%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Etoile Carouge | Rapperswil-Jona |
|---|
| League position | #6 (5 pts) | #8 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 0.5 | 1.0 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 50% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.4 | 2.4 / 2.2 |
*Etoile Carouge shown at home, Rapperswil-Jona shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Etoile Carouge — last 5
WDLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 23% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Rapperswil-Jona — last 5
LWLWL
On the road: clean sheet 17% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Etoile Carouge (home) | Rapperswil-Jona (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.5 / 0.5 goals per game) | 1-0-1 in 2 (1.0 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 23% | 17% |
| Both teams scored | 59% | 55% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 1.21):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (11%) |
| Double chance — Etoile Carouge or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Rapperswil-Jona or draw (X2) | 50% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 76% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 79% / 21% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 34% / 66% |
| Etoile Carouge clean sheet | 30% |
| Rapperswil-Jona clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Etoile Carouge is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Etoile Carouge are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.0, this shapes as an open game (55% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona — FAQ
Who will win Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona?
Our statistical model makes Etoile Carouge the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Etoile Carouge 45%, draw 26%, Rapperswil-Jona 30%.
Will both teams score in Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona?
Expected goals are 1.75 for Etoile Carouge and 1.21 for Rapperswil-Jona — about 3.0 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Etoile Carouge vs Rapperswil-Jona?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (11%). Double chance for Etoile Carouge or draw is 74%.