Etoile Carouge vs Wil Prediction & Preview
Challenge League (Switzerland) · Sep 04, 2026 · kickoff 18:15 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
CHALLENGE LEAGUE (SWITZERLAND)
Etoile Carouge vs Wil
Model pick: Etoile Carouge (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 1.13
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Etoile Carouge | Wil |
|---|
| League position | #6 (8 pts) | #8 (4 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.7 | 2.0 / 3.3 |
| Win rate this season* | 67% | 33% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 0.6 | 1.6 / 2.4 |
*Etoile Carouge shown at home, Wil shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Etoile Carouge — last 5
DLWDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 22% of the time; 55% of home games go over 2.5.
Wil — last 5
LLWLD
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 60% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Etoile Carouge (home) | Wil (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 2-0-1 in 3 (1.7 / 0.7 goals per game) | 1-1-1 in 3 (2.0 / 3.3 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 22% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 54% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 60% |
Challenge League (Switzerland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 58%
BTTS: 58%
Use these Challenge League (Switzerland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 1.13):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Etoile Carouge or draw (1X) | 72% |
| Double chance — Wil or draw (X2) | 53% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 28% / 72% |
| Etoile Carouge clean sheet | 32% |
| Wil clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Etoile Carouge is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Etoile Carouge are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Etoile Carouge vs Wil — FAQ
Who will win Etoile Carouge vs Wil?
Our statistical model makes Etoile Carouge the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Etoile Carouge 45%, draw 26%, Wil 29%.
Will both teams score in Etoile Carouge vs Wil?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Etoile Carouge vs Wil?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Etoile Carouge and 1.13 for Wil — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Etoile Carouge vs Wil?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Etoile Carouge or draw is 72%.