Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui Prediction & Preview
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGUE 1 (TUNISIA)
Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui
Model pick: Etoile du Sahel (57%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.58 – 0.6
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Etoile du Sahel | Métlaoui |
|---|
| League position | #12 (0 pts) | #15 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.2 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
*Etoile du Sahel shown at home, Métlaoui shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Etoile du Sahel — last 5
LLWLL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 55% of the time; 37% of home games go over 2.5.
Métlaoui — last 5
WWLDL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Etoile du Sahel (home) | Métlaoui (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 55% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 41% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 33% |
Ligue 1 (Tunisia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 1.98
Home wins: 47%
Draws: 29%
Away wins: 24%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 36%
Use these Ligue 1 (Tunisia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.58 vs 0.6):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (18%) |
| Double chance — Etoile du Sahel or draw (1X) | 86% |
| Double chance — Métlaoui or draw (X2) | 39% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 64% / 36% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 18% / 82% |
| Etoile du Sahel clean sheet | 55% |
| Métlaoui clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Etoile du Sahel is the model's most likely outcome at
57%. Etoile du Sahel are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui — FAQ
Who will win Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui?
Our statistical model makes Etoile du Sahel the most likely result at 57%. Full probabilities: Etoile du Sahel 57%, draw 26%, Métlaoui 16%.
Will both teams score in Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui?
Expected goals are 1.58 for Etoile du Sahel and 0.6 for Métlaoui — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Etoile du Sahel vs Métlaoui?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (18%). Double chance for Etoile du Sahel or draw is 86%.