Everton vs Audax Italiano Prediction & Preview
Liga De Primera (Chile) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIGA DE PRIMERA (CHILE)
Everton vs Audax Italiano
Model pick: Everton (46%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.52 – 1.26
Total goals: 2.8
Over 2.5: 52%
Both teams score: 53%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Everton | Audax Italiano |
|---|
| League position | #5 (26 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 33% | 12% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.2 / 1.6 | 1.2 / 1.0 |
*Everton shown at home, Audax Italiano shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Everton — last 5
DWDLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of home games go over 2.5.
Audax Italiano — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Everton (home) | Audax Italiano (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 3-3-3 in 9 (1.3 / 1.2 goals per game) | 1-2-5 in 8 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 56% |
| Top scorer | Cristian Palacios (3) | Franco Troyansky (3) |
Liga De Primera (Chile) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 26%
Away wins: 29%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Liga De Primera (Chile) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.52 vs 1.26):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Everton or draw (1X) | 68% |
| Double chance — Audax Italiano or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 77% / 23% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 30% / 70% |
| Everton clean sheet | 28% |
| Audax Italiano clean sheet | 22% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Everton is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Everton are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (48% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Everton vs Audax Italiano — FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Audax Italiano?
Our statistical model makes Everton the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Everton 46%, draw 27%, Audax Italiano 28%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Audax Italiano?
The model gives a 53% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Everton vs Audax Italiano?
Expected goals are 1.52 for Everton and 1.26 for Audax Italiano — about 2.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Everton vs Audax Italiano?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Everton or draw is 68%.