Everton vs Crystal Palace Prediction & Preview
PL · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PL
Everton vs Crystal Palace
Model pick: Everton (41%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.24 – 1.19
Total goals: 2.4
Over 2.5: 47%
Both teams score: 54%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Everton | Crystal Palace |
|---|
| League position | #4 (0 pts) | #13 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.2 / 1.6 |
*Everton shown at home, Crystal Palace shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Everton — last 5
LWLWD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 35% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Crystal Palace — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 22% of the time; 51% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Everton (home) | Crystal Palace (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 35% | 22% |
| Both teams scored | 48% | 51% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 51% |
PL — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.83
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 53%
Use these PL averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.24 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (13%) |
| Double chance — Everton or draw (1X) | 65% |
| Double chance — Crystal Palace or draw (X2) | 63% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Everton clean sheet | 30% |
| Crystal Palace clean sheet | 29% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Everton is the model's most likely outcome at
41%. Everton are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (53% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
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❓ Everton vs Crystal Palace — FAQ
Who will win Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model makes Everton the most likely result at 41%. Full probabilities: Everton 41%, draw 28%, Crystal Palace 31%.
Will both teams score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
The model gives a 54% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
Expected goals are 1.24 for Everton and 1.19 for Crystal Palace — about 2.4 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Everton vs Crystal Palace?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (13%). Double chance for Everton or draw is 65%.