Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction & Preview
J-League (Japan) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 09:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
J-LEAGUE (JAPAN)
Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Model pick: Sanfrecce Hiroshima (46%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.67 – 1.19
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 44%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fagiano Okayama | Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
|---|
| League position | #18 (0 pts) | #14 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.2 / 0.8 | 2.4 / 0.6 |
*Fagiano Okayama shown at home, Sanfrecce Hiroshima shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fagiano Okayama — last 5
LWDWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 36% of the time; 39% of home games go over 2.5.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima — last 5
WWDWD
On the road: clean sheet 31% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fagiano Okayama (home) | Sanfrecce Hiroshima (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 36% | 31% |
| Both teams scored | 42% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 46% |
J-League (Japan) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.55
Home wins: 41%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 33%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 50%
Use these J-League (Japan) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.67 vs 1.19):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (19%) |
| Double chance — Fagiano Okayama or draw (1X) | 52% |
| Double chance — Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw (X2) | 79% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 69% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Fagiano Okayama clean sheet | 30% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima clean sheet | 51% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sanfrecce Hiroshima is the model's most likely outcome at
46%. Despite playing away, Sanfrecce Hiroshima edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima — FAQ
Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our statistical model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the most likely result at 46%. Full probabilities: Fagiano Okayama 22%, draw 31%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 46%.
Will both teams score in Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model gives a 44% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Expected goals are 0.67 for Fagiano Okayama and 1.19 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (19%). Double chance for Fagiano Okayama or draw is 52%.