Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Sep 03, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak
Model pick: Fajr Sepasi (62%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.91 – 0.67
Total goals: 2.6
Over 2.5: 49%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fajr Sepasi | Mes Shahr Babak |
|---|
| League position | #8 (5 pts) | #15 (2 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 0.5 / 2.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Fajr Sepasi shown at home, Mes Shahr Babak shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fajr Sepasi — last 5
WLDDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 26% of home games go over 2.5.
Mes Shahr Babak — last 5
DWLDD
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 50% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fajr Sepasi (home) | Mes Shahr Babak (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-1-1 in 2 (0.5 / 2.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 50% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 41%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.91 vs 0.67):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Fajr Sepasi or draw (1X) | 88% |
| Double chance — Mes Shahr Babak or draw (X2) | 33% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 73% / 27% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 26% / 74% |
| Fajr Sepasi clean sheet | 51% |
| Mes Shahr Babak clean sheet | 15% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fajr Sepasi is the model's most likely outcome at
62%. Fajr Sepasi are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (51% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak — FAQ
Who will win Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak?
Our statistical model makes Fajr Sepasi the most likely result at 62%. Full probabilities: Fajr Sepasi 62%, draw 23%, Mes Shahr Babak 15%.
Will both teams score in Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak?
Expected goals are 1.91 for Fajr Sepasi and 0.67 for Mes Shahr Babak — about 2.6 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fajr Sepasi vs Mes Shahr Babak?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Fajr Sepasi or draw is 88%.