Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 16:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft
Model pick: Fajr Sepasi (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.43 – 0.91
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 46%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fajr Sepasi | Sanat Naft |
|---|
| League position | #6 (0 pts) | #9 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.2 | 2.0 / 0.8 |
*Fajr Sepasi shown at home, Sanat Naft shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fajr Sepasi — last 5
LWLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 27% of home games go over 2.5.
Sanat Naft — last 5
LWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 33% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fajr Sepasi (home) | Sanat Naft (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 33% |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.43 vs 0.91):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Fajr Sepasi or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — Sanat Naft or draw (X2) | 51% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 21% / 79% |
| Fajr Sepasi clean sheet | 40% |
| Sanat Naft clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fajr Sepasi is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Fajr Sepasi are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (54% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft — FAQ
Who will win Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft?
Our statistical model makes Fajr Sepasi the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Fajr Sepasi 47%, draw 28%, Sanat Naft 25%.
Will both teams score in Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft?
Expected goals are 1.43 for Fajr Sepasi and 0.91 for Sanat Naft — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fajr Sepasi vs Sanat Naft?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Fajr Sepasi or draw is 76%.