Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Iran) · Aug 29, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (IRAN)
Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan
Model pick: Fajr Sepasi (37%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.0 – 0.85
Total goals: 1.9
Over 2.5: 38%
Both teams score: 46%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fajr Sepasi | Zob Ahan |
|---|
| League position | #10 (2 pts) | #12 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 0.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.2 |
*Fajr Sepasi shown at home, Zob Ahan shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fajr Sepasi — last 5
LWLDD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 26% of home games go over 2.5.
Zob Ahan — last 5
WLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 38% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fajr Sepasi (home) | Zob Ahan (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-1-0 in 1 (0.0 / 0.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 44% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 38% |
| Top scorer | – | Milad Zakipour (1) |
Premier League (Iran) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.01
Home wins: 38%
Draws: 35%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 33%
BTTS: 42%
Use these Premier League (Iran) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.0 vs 0.85):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Fajr Sepasi or draw (1X) | 70% |
| Double chance — Zob Ahan or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 68% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 55% / 45% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 12% / 88% |
| Fajr Sepasi clean sheet | 43% |
| Zob Ahan clean sheet | 37% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fajr Sepasi is the model's most likely outcome at
37%. Fajr Sepasi are backed at home, where they average 0.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (62% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan — FAQ
Who will win Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan?
Our statistical model makes Fajr Sepasi the most likely result at 37%. Full probabilities: Fajr Sepasi 37%, draw 32%, Zob Ahan 30%.
Will both teams score in Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan?
The model gives a 46% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan?
Expected goals are 1.0 for Fajr Sepasi and 0.85 for Zob Ahan — about 1.9 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fajr Sepasi vs Zob Ahan?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-0 (16%). Double chance for Fajr Sepasi or draw is 70%.