Fakel vs Krasnodar Prediction & Preview
Russia Cup · Sep 01, 2026 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
RUSSIA CUP
Fakel vs Krasnodar
Model pick: Krasnodar (77%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.27 – 2.18
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 37%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fakel | Krasnodar |
|---|
| League position | #2 (68 pts) | #1 (15 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | 2.0 / 0.7 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 100% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 0.4 |
*Fakel shown at home, Krasnodar shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fakel — last 5
LDLLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 42% of the time; 18% of home games go over 2.5.
Krasnodar — last 5
WWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 33% of the time; 46% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fakel (home) | Krasnodar (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | 3-0-0 in 3 (2.0 / 0.7 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 42% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 53% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 18% | 46% |
Russia Cup — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.08
Home wins: 54%
Draws: 2%
Away wins: 45%
Over 2.5: 66%
BTTS: 54%
Use these Russia Cup averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.27 vs 2.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-2 (21%) |
| Double chance — Fakel or draw (1X) | 18% |
| Double chance — Krasnodar or draw (X2) | 96% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 85% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 70% / 30% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 23% / 77% |
| Fakel clean sheet | 11% |
| Krasnodar clean sheet | 76% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Krasnodar is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. Despite playing away, Krasnodar edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
Want this data in your own app or model? Get win probabilities (1X2), expected goals, over/under, BTTS and correct-score for 40+ leagues worldwide via a simple JSON API — the same GoalSoon model behind this page.
40+ leagues
1X2 · O/U · BTTS · xG
JSON REST
Free tier available
Get API access on RapidAPI →
❓ Fakel vs Krasnodar — FAQ
Who will win Fakel vs Krasnodar?
Our statistical model makes Krasnodar the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: Fakel 5%, draw 18%, Krasnodar 77%.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Krasnodar?
The model gives a 37% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fakel vs Krasnodar?
Expected goals are 0.27 for Fakel and 2.18 for Krasnodar — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fakel vs Krasnodar?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-2 (21%). Double chance for Fakel or draw is 18%.