Falkirk vs Hearts Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 22, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Falkirk vs Hearts
Model pick: Hearts (45%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.18 – 1.53
Total goals: 2.7
Over 2.5: 51%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Falkirk | Hearts |
|---|
| League position | #10 (1 pts) | #4 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 0.0 / 2.0 | 1.0 / 2.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.8 | 2.6 / 2.2 |
*Falkirk shown at home, Hearts shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Falkirk — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 31% of the time; 54% of home games go over 2.5.
Hearts — last 5
LLWDW
On the road: clean sheet 27% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Falkirk (home) | Hearts (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 0-0-1 in 1 (0.0 / 2.0 goals per game) | 0-0-1 in 1 (1.0 / 2.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 31% | 27% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Ross MacIver (3) | Claudio Braga (14) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.18 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (12%) |
| Double chance — Falkirk or draw (1X) | 55% |
| Double chance — Hearts or draw (X2) | 71% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 75% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 75% / 25% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 29% / 71% |
| Falkirk clean sheet | 22% |
| Hearts clean sheet | 31% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Hearts is the model's most likely outcome at
45%. Despite playing away, Hearts edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (49% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Falkirk vs Hearts — FAQ
Who will win Falkirk vs Hearts?
Our statistical model makes Hearts the most likely result at 45%. Full probabilities: Falkirk 28%, draw 27%, Hearts 45%.
Will both teams score in Falkirk vs Hearts?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Falkirk vs Hearts?
Expected goals are 1.18 for Falkirk and 1.53 for Hearts — about 2.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Falkirk vs Hearts?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (12%). Double chance for Falkirk or draw is 55%.