Falkirk vs St. Mirren Prediction & Preview
Premier League (Scotland) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PREMIER LEAGUE (SCOTLAND)
Falkirk vs St. Mirren
Model pick: Falkirk (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.54 – 0.96
Total goals: 2.5
Over 2.5: 48%
Both teams score: 55%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Falkirk | St. Mirren |
|---|
| League position | #2 (0 pts) | #7 (0 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 0.6 | 2.6 / 0.8 |
*Falkirk shown at home, St. Mirren shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Falkirk — last 5
WLWLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 53% of home games go over 2.5.
St. Mirren — last 5
WWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 52% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Falkirk (home) | St. Mirren (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 52% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 52% |
| Top scorer | Ross MacIver (3) | Mikael Mandron (4) |
Premier League (Scotland) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.72
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Premier League (Scotland) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.54 vs 0.96):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (13%) |
| Double chance — Falkirk or draw (1X) | 76% |
| Double chance — St. Mirren or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 71% / 29% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 24% / 76% |
| Falkirk clean sheet | 38% |
| St. Mirren clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Falkirk is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Falkirk are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (52% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
🔌 Football Predictions API — for developers
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❓ Falkirk vs St. Mirren — FAQ
Who will win Falkirk vs St. Mirren?
Our statistical model makes Falkirk the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Falkirk 47%, draw 27%, St. Mirren 26%.
Will both teams score in Falkirk vs St. Mirren?
The model gives a 55% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Falkirk vs St. Mirren?
Expected goals are 1.54 for Falkirk and 0.96 for St. Mirren — about 2.5 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Falkirk vs St. Mirren?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (13%). Double chance for Falkirk or draw is 76%.