Famalicão vs Marítimo Prediction & Preview
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) · Aug 16, 2026 · kickoff 19:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PORTUGUESE LIGA (PORTUGAL)
Famalicão vs Marítimo
Model pick: Famalicão (53%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.55 – 0.74
Total goals: 2.3
Over 2.5: 45%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Famalicão | Marítimo |
|---|
| League position | #9 (1 pts) | #3 (3 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 1.0 | 1.0 / 0.2 |
*Famalicão shown at home, Marítimo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Famalicão — last 5
WLWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 40% of the time; 48% of home games go over 2.5.
Marítimo — last 5
WDDWW
On the road: clean sheet 29% of the time; 45% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Famalicão (home) | Marítimo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 40% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 45% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 45% |
Portuguese Liga (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.6
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 24%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 48%
Use these Portuguese Liga (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.55 vs 0.74):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (16%) |
| Double chance — Famalicão or draw (1X) | 82% |
| Double chance — Marítimo or draw (X2) | 43% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 74% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 67% / 33% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 20% / 80% |
| Famalicão clean sheet | 48% |
| Marítimo clean sheet | 21% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Famalicão is the model's most likely outcome at
53%. Famalicão are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (55% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Famalicão vs Marítimo — FAQ
Who will win Famalicão vs Marítimo?
Our statistical model makes Famalicão the most likely result at 53%. Full probabilities: Famalicão 53%, draw 27%, Marítimo 20%.
Will both teams score in Famalicão vs Marítimo?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Famalicão vs Marítimo?
Expected goals are 1.55 for Famalicão and 0.74 for Marítimo — about 2.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Famalicão vs Marítimo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (16%). Double chance for Famalicão or draw is 82%.