Farense vs Chaves Prediction & Preview
Division2 (Portugal) · Sep 06, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
DIVISION2 (PORTUGAL)
Farense vs Chaves
Model pick: Farense (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.15 – 0.99
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 43%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Farense | Chaves |
|---|
| League position | #6 (7 pts) | #18 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.5 / 1.0 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.4 | 0.8 / 2.0 |
*Farense shown at home, Chaves shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Farense — last 5
LWWDL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 32% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Chaves — last 5
LLLDL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Farense (home) | Chaves (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 1-1-0 in 2 (1.5 / 1.0 goals per game) | 0-0-2 in 2 (0.5 / 1.5 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 32% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% |
Division2 (Portugal) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.47
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 47%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Division2 (Portugal) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.15 vs 0.99):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — Farense or draw (1X) | 69% |
| Double chance — Chaves or draw (X2) | 61% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 71% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 63% / 37% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 17% / 83% |
| Farense clean sheet | 37% |
| Chaves clean sheet | 32% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Farense is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. Farense are backed at home, where they average 1.3 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (57% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Farense vs Chaves — FAQ
Who will win Farense vs Chaves?
Our statistical model makes Farense the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: Farense 42%, draw 29%, Chaves 29%.
Will both teams score in Farense vs Chaves?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Farense vs Chaves?
Expected goals are 1.15 for Farense and 0.99 for Chaves — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Farense vs Chaves?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (14%). Double chance for Farense or draw is 69%.