Farnborough vs Chesham United Prediction & Preview
National League N/S (England) · Aug 19, 2026 · kickoff 18:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
NATIONAL LEAGUE N/S (ENGLAND)
Farnborough vs Chesham United
Model pick: Farnborough (40%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.53
Total goals: 3.2
Over 2.5: 57%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Farnborough | Chesham United |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.2 | 1.8 / 2.2 |
*Farnborough shown at home, Chesham United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Farnborough — last 5
LLDWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 25% of the time; 57% of home games go over 2.5.
Chesham United — last 5
LDWLL
On the road: clean sheet 12% of the time; 56% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Farnborough (home) | Chesham United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 25% | 12% |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 67% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% |
National League N/S (England) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.79
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 32%
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 54%
Use these National League N/S (England) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.65 vs 1.53):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — Farnborough or draw (1X) | 64% |
| Double chance — Chesham United or draw (X2) | 59% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 77% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 83% / 17% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 39% / 61% |
| Farnborough clean sheet | 22% |
| Chesham United clean sheet | 19% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Farnborough is the model's most likely outcome at
40%. Farnborough are backed at home, where they average 1.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.2, this shapes as an open game (57% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Farnborough vs Chesham United — FAQ
Who will win Farnborough vs Chesham United?
Our statistical model makes Farnborough the most likely result at 40%. Full probabilities: Farnborough 40%, draw 25%, Chesham United 35%.
Will both teams score in Farnborough vs Chesham United?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in Farnborough vs Chesham United?
Expected goals are 1.65 for Farnborough and 1.53 for Chesham United — about 3.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Farnborough vs Chesham United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for Farnborough or draw is 64%.