Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Sep 02, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor
Model pick: Kayserispor (47%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 0.05 – 1.28
Total goals: 1.3
Over 2.5: 28%
Both teams score: 19%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fatih Karagümrük | Kayserispor |
|---|
| League position | #18 (30 pts) | #17 (30 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.4 | 0.7 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 35% | 6% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.0 | 1.6 / 0.6 |
*Fatih Karagümrük shown at home, Kayserispor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 52% of home games go over 2.5.
Kayserispor — last 5
WLWWW
On the road: clean sheet 16% of the time; 55% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fatih Karagümrük (home) | Kayserispor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-8 in 17 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) | 1-8-8 in 17 (0.7 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 16% |
| Both teams scored | 55% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 55% |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (0.05 vs 1.28):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 0-1 (34%) |
| Double chance — Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X) | 30% |
| Double chance — Kayserispor or draw (X2) | 99% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 72% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 38% / 62% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 5% / 95% |
| Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet | 28% |
| Kayserispor clean sheet | 95% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Kayserispor is the model's most likely outcome at
47%. Despite playing away, Kayserispor edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. Goals may be harder to come by (72% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor — FAQ
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Our statistical model makes Kayserispor the most likely result at 47%. Full probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 25%, draw 28%, Kayserispor 47%.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
The model gives a 19% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
Expected goals are 0.05 for Fatih Karagümrük and 1.28 for Kayserispor — about 1.3 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 0-1 (34%). Double chance for Fatih Karagümrük or draw is 30%.