Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor Prediction & Preview
Lig A (Turkey) · Aug 15, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
LIG A (TURKEY)
Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor
Model pick: Fatih Karagümrük (48%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.42 – 0.81
Total goals: 2.2
Over 2.5: 44%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| Fatih Karagümrük | Ümraniyespor |
|---|
| League position | #18 (30 pts) | #9 (1 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.1 / 1.4 | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 35% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 0.8 / 0.6 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
*Fatih Karagümrük shown at home, Ümraniyespor shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
Fatih Karagümrük — last 5
DWWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 51% of home games go over 2.5.
Ümraniyespor — last 5
LWLLD
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 47% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | Fatih Karagümrük (home) | Ümraniyespor (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-3-8 in 17 (1.1 / 1.4 goals per game) | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 47% |
| Top scorer | – | Jurgen Bardhi (6) |
Lig A (Turkey) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.67
Home wins: 45%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 30%
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%
Use these Lig A (Turkey) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.42 vs 0.81):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — Fatih Karagümrük or draw (1X) | 79% |
| Double chance — Ümraniyespor or draw (X2) | 49% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 73% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 65% / 35% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 19% / 81% |
| Fatih Karagümrük clean sheet | 44% |
| Ümraniyespor clean sheet | 24% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Fatih Karagümrük is the model's most likely outcome at
48%. Fatih Karagümrük are backed at home, where they average 1.7 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (56% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor — FAQ
Who will win Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model makes Fatih Karagümrük the most likely result at 48%. Full probabilities: Fatih Karagümrük 48%, draw 28%, Ümraniyespor 23%.
Will both teams score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
Expected goals are 1.42 for Fatih Karagümrük and 0.81 for Ümraniyespor — about 2.2 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in Fatih Karagümrük vs Ümraniyespor?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for Fatih Karagümrük or draw is 79%.