FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 21, 2026 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau
Model pick: FC Cajamarca (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.98 – 1.33
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 59%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FC Cajamarca | Atlético Grau |
|---|
| League position | #15 (18 pts) | #13 (19 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.75 / 2.0 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
*FC Cajamarca shown at home, Atlético Grau shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FC Cajamarca — last 5
DLLW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 50% of home games go over 2.5.
Atlético Grau — last 5
WLLDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 41% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FC Cajamarca (home) | Atlético Grau (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 41% |
| Top scorer | Marlon de Jesus (4) | – |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.98 vs 1.33):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (10%) |
| Double chance — FC Cajamarca or draw (1X) | 74% |
| Double chance — Atlético Grau or draw (X2) | 47% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| FC Cajamarca clean sheet | 26% |
| Atlético Grau clean sheet | 14% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FC Cajamarca is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. FC Cajamarca are backed at home, where they average 1.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau — FAQ
Who will win FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau?
Our statistical model makes FC Cajamarca the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: FC Cajamarca 50%, draw 23%, Atlético Grau 27%.
Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau?
The model gives a 59% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau?
Expected goals are 1.98 for FC Cajamarca and 1.33 for Atlético Grau — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FC Cajamarca vs Atlético Grau?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (10%). Double chance for FC Cajamarca or draw is 74%.