FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo Prediction & Preview
Primera Division (Peru) · Aug 01, 2026 · kickoff 18:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
PRIMERA DIVISION (PERU)
FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo
Model pick: Sport Huancayo (38%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.75 – 1.82
Total goals: 3.6
Over 2.5: 62%
Both teams score: 57%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FC Cajamarca | Sport Huancayo |
|---|
| League position | #15 (18 pts) | #17 (16 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.5 / 2.0 | 2.0 / 1.0 |
*FC Cajamarca shown at home, Sport Huancayo shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FC Cajamarca — last 5
DL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Sport Huancayo — last 5
WLWLW
On the road: clean sheet 26% of the time; 44% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FC Cajamarca (home) | Sport Huancayo (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 26% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 44% |
| Top scorer | Marlon de Jesus (4) | Yorleys Mena (5) |
Primera Division (Peru) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.65
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 27%
Away wins: 25%
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 52%
Use these Primera Division (Peru) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.75 vs 1.82):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-1 (9%) |
| Double chance — FC Cajamarca or draw (1X) | 60% |
| Double chance — Sport Huancayo or draw (X2) | 62% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 78% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 87% / 13% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 48% / 52% |
| FC Cajamarca clean sheet | 16% |
| Sport Huancayo clean sheet | 17% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Sport Huancayo is the model's most likely outcome at
38%. Despite playing away, Sport Huancayo edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.6, this shapes as an open game (62% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo — FAQ
Who will win FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?
Our statistical model makes Sport Huancayo the most likely result at 38%. Full probabilities: FC Cajamarca 35%, draw 27%, Sport Huancayo 38%.
Will both teams score in FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?
The model gives a 57% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?
Expected goals are 1.75 for FC Cajamarca and 1.82 for Sport Huancayo — about 3.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FC Cajamarca vs Sport Huancayo?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-1 (9%). Double chance for FC Cajamarca or draw is 60%.