FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona Prediction & Preview
Segunda B (Spain) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 16:45 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
SEGUNDA B (SPAIN)
FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona
Model pick: FC Cartagena (42%)
Goals: Under 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.2 – 0.88
Total goals: 2.1
Over 2.5: 42%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FC Cartagena | Gimnàstic Tarragona |
|---|
| League position | n/a | n/a |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | n/a | n/a |
| Win rate this season* | 0% | 0% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.4 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.2 |
*FC Cartagena shown at home, Gimnàstic Tarragona shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FC Cartagena — last 5
LWLDW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 41% of the time; 45% of home games go over 2.5.
Gimnàstic Tarragona — last 5
LDLLL
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 29% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FC Cartagena (home) | Gimnàstic Tarragona (away) |
|---|
| This season record | n/a | n/a |
| Clean sheet rate | 41% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 39% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 29% |
Segunda B (Spain) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.26
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 30%
Away wins: 26%
Over 2.5: 40%
BTTS: 46%
Use these Segunda B (Spain) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.2 vs 0.88):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-0 (15%) |
| Double chance — FC Cartagena or draw (1X) | 73% |
| Double chance — Gimnàstic Tarragona or draw (X2) | 57% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 70% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 62% / 38% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 16% / 84% |
| FC Cartagena clean sheet | 41% |
| Gimnàstic Tarragona clean sheet | 30% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FC Cartagena is the model's most likely outcome at
42%. FC Cartagena are backed at home, where they average 1.4 goals a game. Goals may be harder to come by (58% under 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona — FAQ
Who will win FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona?
Our statistical model makes FC Cartagena the most likely result at 42%. Full probabilities: FC Cartagena 42%, draw 30%, Gimnàstic Tarragona 28%.
Will both teams score in FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona?
Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Cartagena and 0.88 for Gimnàstic Tarragona — about 2.1 total, pointing to Under 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FC Cartagena vs Gimnàstic Tarragona?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-0 (15%). Double chance for FC Cartagena or draw is 73%.