FC Naples vs Boise Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
FC Naples vs Boise
Model pick: Boise (50%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.49 – 2.18
Total goals: 3.7
Over 2.5: 63%
Both teams score: 61%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FC Naples | Boise |
|---|
| League position | #11 (26 pts) | #6 (38 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.4 / 1.4 | 1.6 / 1.9 |
| Win rate this season* | 55% | 36% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.6 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.0 |
*FC Naples shown at home, Boise shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FC Naples — last 5
WLWWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Boise — last 5
DWWDW
On the road: clean sheet 20% of the time; 80% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FC Naples (home) | Boise (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 6-1-4 in 11 (1.4 / 1.4 goals per game) | 4-3-4 in 11 (1.6 / 1.9 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 80% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 80% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 49%
Draws: 23%
Away wins: 28%
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 62%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.49 vs 2.18):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-2 (9%) |
| Double chance — FC Naples or draw (1X) | 47% |
| Double chance — Boise or draw (X2) | 74% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 79% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 88% / 12% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 50% / 50% |
| FC Naples clean sheet | 11% |
| Boise clean sheet | 23% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Boise is the model's most likely outcome at
50%. Despite playing away, Boise edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 3.7, this shapes as an open game (63% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FC Naples vs Boise — FAQ
Who will win FC Naples vs Boise?
Our statistical model makes Boise the most likely result at 50%. Full probabilities: FC Naples 27%, draw 22%, Boise 50%.
Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Boise?
The model gives a 61% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FC Naples vs Boise?
Expected goals are 1.49 for FC Naples and 2.18 for Boise — about 3.7 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FC Naples vs Boise?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-2 (9%). Double chance for FC Naples or draw is 47%.