FC Naples vs Union Omaha Prediction & Preview
USL League One (USA) · Aug 26, 2026 · kickoff 23:30 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
USL LEAGUE ONE (USA)
FC Naples vs Union Omaha
Model pick: Union Omaha (71%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 1.28 – 3.35
Total goals: 4.6
Over 2.5: 72%
Both teams score: 62%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FC Naples | Union Omaha |
|---|
| League position | #14 (20 pts) | #1 (44 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Win rate this season* | 50% | 55% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 1.0 / 2.0 | 2.8 / 1.0 |
*FC Naples shown at home, Union Omaha shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FC Naples — last 5
LLLWL
At home: keeps a clean sheet 0% of the time; 100% of home games go over 2.5.
Union Omaha — last 5
DWWWW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 75% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FC Naples (home) | Union Omaha (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-1-4 in 10 (1.3 / 1.5 goals per game) | 6-0-5 in 11 (1.4 / 1.2 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 0% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 75% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 100% | 75% |
USL League One (USA) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 2.9
Home wins: 55%
Draws: 18%
Away wins: 27%
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 56%
Use these USL League One (USA) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (1.28 vs 3.35):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 1-3 (8%) |
| Double chance — FC Naples or draw (1X) | 23% |
| Double chance — Union Omaha or draw (X2) | 89% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 87% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 94% / 6% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 68% / 32% |
| FC Naples clean sheet | 4% |
| Union Omaha clean sheet | 28% |
🎯 Our Verdict
Union Omaha is the model's most likely outcome at
71%. Despite playing away, Union Omaha edge the model — their form outweighs home advantage here. With expected goals of 4.6, this shapes as an open game (72% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FC Naples vs Union Omaha — FAQ
Who will win FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
Our statistical model makes Union Omaha the most likely result at 71%. Full probabilities: FC Naples 13%, draw 15%, Union Omaha 71%.
Will both teams score in FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
The model gives a 62% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
Expected goals are 1.28 for FC Naples and 3.35 for Union Omaha — about 4.6 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FC Naples vs Union Omaha?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 1-3 (8%). Double chance for FC Naples or draw is 23%.