FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash Prediction & Preview
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) · Sep 05, 2026 · kickoff 13:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
FNL 2 DIVISION B (RUSSIA)
FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash
Model pick: FC Sevastopol (75%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.82 – 1.37
Total goals: 5.2
Over 2.5: 77%
Both teams score: 64%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FC Sevastopol | Kyzyltash |
|---|
| League position | #1 (47 pts) | #5 (31 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 1.7 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 1.0 |
| Win rate this season* | 78% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.0 / 1.2 | 2.6 / 2.2 |
*FC Sevastopol shown at home, Kyzyltash shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FC Sevastopol — last 5
WWLWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 33% of the time; 67% of home games go over 2.5.
Kyzyltash — last 5
LWLDW
On the road: clean sheet 25% of the time; 25% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FC Sevastopol (home) | Kyzyltash (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-1-1 in 9 (1.7 / 0.9 goals per game) | 4-4-2 in 10 (1.4 / 1.0 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 33% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 25% |
FNL 2 Division B (Russia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.03
Home wins: 44%
Draws: 25%
Away wins: 31%
Over 2.5: 60%
BTTS: 59%
Use these FNL 2 Division B (Russia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.82 vs 1.37):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-1 (7%) |
| Double chance — FC Sevastopol or draw (1X) | 91% |
| Double chance — Kyzyltash or draw (X2) | 20% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 89% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 96% / 4% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 76% / 24% |
| FC Sevastopol clean sheet | 25% |
| Kyzyltash clean sheet | 2% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FC Sevastopol is the model's most likely outcome at
75%. FC Sevastopol are backed at home, where they average 2.0 goals a game. With expected goals of 5.2, this shapes as an open game (77% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash — FAQ
Who will win FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash?
Our statistical model makes FC Sevastopol the most likely result at 75%. Full probabilities: FC Sevastopol 75%, draw 13%, Kyzyltash 12%.
Will both teams score in FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash?
The model gives a 64% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash?
Expected goals are 3.82 for FC Sevastopol and 1.37 for Kyzyltash — about 5.2 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FC Sevastopol vs Kyzyltash?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-1 (7%). Double chance for FC Sevastopol or draw is 91%.