FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Sep 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare
Model pick: FCI Levadia (77%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: No
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 2.74 – 0.58
Total goals: 3.3
Over 2.5: 59%
Both teams score: 48%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FCI Levadia | Kuressaare |
|---|
| League position | #1 (59 pts) | #9 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.9 / 0.6 | 1.0 / 1.8 |
| Win rate this season* | 64% | 23% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 3.6 / 0.8 | 3.2 / 1.4 |
*FCI Levadia shown at home, Kuressaare shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FCI Levadia — last 5
WWWWW
At home: keeps a clean sheet 49% of the time; 69% of home games go over 2.5.
Kuressaare — last 5
WWWLD
On the road: clean sheet 18% of the time; 62% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FCI Levadia (home) | Kuressaare (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 7-3-1 in 11 (2.9 / 0.6 goals per game) | 3-1-9 in 13 (1.0 / 1.8 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 49% | 18% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 48% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 62% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (2.74 vs 0.58):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 2-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — FCI Levadia or draw (1X) | 95% |
| Double chance — Kuressaare or draw (X2) | 18% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 88% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 84% / 16% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 42% / 58% |
| FCI Levadia clean sheet | 56% |
| Kuressaare clean sheet | 6% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FCI Levadia is the model's most likely outcome at
77%. FCI Levadia are backed at home, where they average 2.7 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.3, this shapes as an open game (59% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
No.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare — FAQ
Who will win FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare?
Our statistical model makes FCI Levadia the most likely result at 77%. Full probabilities: FCI Levadia 77%, draw 15%, Kuressaare 8%.
Will both teams score in FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare?
The model gives a 48% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'No'.
How many goals in FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare?
Expected goals are 2.74 for FCI Levadia and 0.58 for Kuressaare — about 3.3 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FCI Levadia vs Kuressaare?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 2-0 (14%). Double chance for FCI Levadia or draw is 95%.