FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United Prediction & Preview
Meistriliiga (Estonia) · Aug 09, 2026 · kickoff 16:00 UTC · model-based analysis by GoalSoon
MEISTRILIIGA (ESTONIA)
FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United
Model pick: FCI Levadia (83%)
Goals: Over 2.5
BTTS: Yes
📊 Match Prediction
Win probabilities from our own Poisson statistical model (attack & defence ratings, home advantage, expected goals):
Expected goals: 3.28 – 0.47
Total goals: 3.8
Over 2.5: 64%
Both teams score: 50%
⚔️ Head-to-Head Form & Stats
| FCI Levadia | Nõmme United |
|---|
| League position | #1 (47 pts) | #7 (25 pts) |
| Goals scored / conceded per game* | 2.6 / 0.8 | 1.5 / 2.4 |
| Win rate this season* | 56% | 40% |
| Last 5 goals for / against | 2.8 / 1.0 | 3.8 / 1.6 |
*FCI Levadia shown at home, Nõmme United shown away — the split that matters for this fixture.
🔥 Recent Form
FCI Levadia — last 5
WWWLD
At home: keeps a clean sheet 49% of the time; 69% of home games go over 2.5.
Nõmme United — last 5
LWWWL
On the road: clean sheet 0% of the time; 42% of away games go over 2.5.
📈 Key Stats & Trends
| Trend | FCI Levadia (home) | Nõmme United (away) |
|---|
| This season record | 5-3-1 in 9 (2.6 / 0.8 goals per game) | 4-1-5 in 10 (1.5 / 2.4 goals per game) |
| Clean sheet rate | 49% | 0% |
| Both teams scored | 49% | 58% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 42% |
Meistriliiga (Estonia) — league context this season
Avg goals / game: 3.22
Home wins: 43%
Draws: 19%
Away wins: 38%
Over 2.5: 62%
BTTS: 51%
Use these Meistriliiga (Estonia) averages as a benchmark for the two teams above.
🎲 More Prediction Markets
Derived from the model's expected goals (3.28 vs 0.47):
| Market | Model probability |
|---|
| Most likely scoreline | 3-0 (14%) |
| Double chance — FCI Levadia or draw (1X) | 97% |
| Double chance — Nõmme United or draw (X2) | 10% |
| Double chance — either team (12) | 92% |
| Over / Under 1.5 goals | 89% / 11% |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals | 51% / 49% |
| FCI Levadia clean sheet | 63% |
| Nõmme United clean sheet | 4% |
🎯 Our Verdict
FCI Levadia is the model's most likely outcome at
83%. FCI Levadia are backed at home, where they average 2.6 goals a game. With expected goals of 3.8, this shapes as an open game (64% over 2.5).
The lean on goals is
Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score
Yes.
These are model probabilities, not guarantees — football is uncertain by design.
See live probabilities for every game → goalsoon.com
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❓ FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United — FAQ
Who will win FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United?
Our statistical model makes FCI Levadia the most likely result at 83%. Full probabilities: FCI Levadia 83%, draw 12%, Nõmme United 5%.
Will both teams score in FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United?
The model gives a 50% chance both teams score, so the lean is 'Yes'.
How many goals in FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United?
Expected goals are 3.28 for FCI Levadia and 0.47 for Nõmme United — about 3.8 total, pointing to Over 2.5.
What is the most likely score in FCI Levadia vs Nõmme United?
The model's single most likely scoreline is 3-0 (14%). Double chance for FCI Levadia or draw is 97%.